Digital downloads have broken apart the album and decimated major label music revenues. So movies will also get cheap and DRM-free as they increasingly migrate to the ‘Net, right? Think again.

The movie business is often said to follow the lead of the music industry. Watch what happens to music on the Internet, wait a few years, and expect that the same things will happen to Hollywood blockbusters. Think of it as peering into the future, but without the Magic 8-Ball, Ouija board, or astrologer.

As content migrates onto the Internet, what happens to it? In many cases, it gets cheaper—even dramatically cheaper. This price compression effect has been catastrophic for newspapers, and it has whacked away a significant percentage of major label revenue from recorded music (although the music business as a whole remains exceptionally vibrant).

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